Moderna (MRNA) Q4 2022 Earning Report Analysis

– Quarterly revenue: $5.08 billion, a 6% decrease from Q3 2022;

– Quarterly earnings: $3.61 per share, a 35% decrease from Q3 2022;

– Lowered 2023 revenue guidance for Covid vaccine sales by $4 billion due to omicron variant uncertainty;

– EPS forecast for Q1 is $3.12
  Consensus EPS forecast: $3.22
  High EPS forecast: $12.53
  Low EPS forecast: -$3
  Number of estimates: 12

The earnings forecast for 2023 is significantly lower than 2022 due to several factors, such as:
  Uncertainty over Covid vaccine sales due to omicron variant;
  Increased competition from other mRNA companies;
  Higher research and development costs for new products;

– Announced positive data for personalized cancer vaccine candidate in melanoma patients;

– Operating expense increased due to higher research and development costs;

(2) Moderna misses on earnings as costs rise from surplus production capacity, lower Covid shot demand.
(3) Moderna (MRNA) Lags on Q4 Earnings, COVID Jab Sales Down Y/Y.
(4) Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q4 Earnings: What’s in the Cards?.
(5) Moderna’s Earnings, Revenue Fall on Fewer Covid Vaccine Sales.
(6) Moderna (MRNA) Lags Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates.