The ‘first five days’ indicator has a good track record of predicting full-year returns.

When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S&P 500 has been positive more than 80% of the time at year-end with an average gain of about 13%, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac:


If S&P 500 goes up 2% the first five days of the year. It’s a “harbinger of good returns.” It hasn’t been wrong since 1950. It has predicted a bull market 16 out of 16 times with an average return of 18%+: