At first glance, it looks like a $9 trillion time bomb is ready to detonate, a corporate debt load that has escalated thanks to easy borrowing terms and a seemingly endless thirst from investors.
On Wall Street, though, hopes are fairly high that it’s a manageable problem, at least for the next year or two.
The resolution is critical for financial markets under fire. Stocks are floundering, credit spreads are blowing out and concern is building that a combination of higher interest rates on all that debt will begin to weigh meaningfully on corporate profit margins.
“There is angst in the marketplace. It’s not misplaced at all,” said Michael Temple, director of credit research at asset manager Amundi Pioneer. “But are we at that moment where this thing blows sky high? I would think that we’re not there yet. That’s not to say that we don’t get there at some point over the next 12 to 18 months as rates continue to move higher.”
Essentially, the situation can break in two ways: a good-news case where companies can manage their debt as the economy stabilizes and interest rates stay in check, and the other where the economy decelerates, rates keep heading up and it’s no longer so easy to keep rolling that debt over.